Italian machine tool industry: expected improvement in 2025, but forecast are not brilliant

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The year 2024 proved highly challenging for the Italian machine tool, robot, and automation systems industry, marked by significant declines in nearly all key economic indicators except exports, which saw a modest rise. Production fell by 16.9% to 6.327 billion euros compared to 2023, driven primarily by a sharp 39.5% drop in domestic deliveries to 2.054 billion euros amid a 36.3% contraction in domestic consumption. Imports also declined heavily by 31.8%, totalling 1.653 billion euros. On the positive side, exports increased moderately by 1.2% reaching a record 4.273 billion euros, boosting the export-to-production ratio from 55.5% to 67.5%. Main export markets included the US (+10.9%), Germany (+1.6%), and India (+58.3%), though some markets, such as China and France, contracted significantly.

Production capacity utilisation fell to 77.3% from 86.2% in 2023, and order backlogs decreased slightly to 6.5 months from 7.3 months. Overall turnover was under 9.34 billion euros.

Looking ahead to 2025, the industry expects a slight recovery with production projected to rise by 2.6% to 6.49 billion euros. Exports should continue growing, albeit slightly (+1%) to 4.315 billion euros, and domestic deliveries are forecast to increase by 5.9% to 2.175 billion euros, supported by a modest 5.5% rebound in domestic consumption. Imports may grow by 4.9% to 1.735 billion euros.

Riccardo Rosa, president of UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PRODURRE, emphasised the uncertainty caused by global trade tensions and geopolitical risks, urging companies to invest in innovation, professional training, and competitiveness. Rosa highlighted the vital role of digital and green transformation technologies such as interconnectivity, AI, and remote control systems in modern machine tools. He called for continued governmental support for industrial incentive programs (Transition 5.0), warning that Italy must keep pace with Germany’s industrial plans to remain competitive within European production chains.

Additional concerns were raised about the future of automotive production in Europe, stressing the need for balanced technology-neutral policies that consider economic and social impacts while avoiding hollowing out of the Eurozone manufacturing base. Defence and aerospace sectors offer growth opportunities but pose high entry barriers for SMEs. Tariff impacts appear manageable for direct exports, especially to the US market, but indirect effects on supply chains are worrisome. Political and regional instability remain serious challenges to investment decisions.

Lastly, UCIMU reaffirmed its commitment to professional training initiatives, including partnerships with schools and universities, to close the skills gap and prepare workers for managing advanced machinery.

In summary, 2024 was a difficult year with widespread contraction, but 2025 holds prospects of cautious improvement amid continuing challenges requiring strategic innovation and policy support.

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